Kentucky coal forecast shows limited change from Trump’s energy policies

Coal forecast still shows decline

Federal forecasters expect U.S. coal generation to decline through 2027 even as President Donald Trump’s administration adopts regulatory changes and emergency orders supporting existing coal-fired power plant operations.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration completed its monthly forecast in early September and released it six days later, ahead of the next scheduled energy update in early October 2026.

Coal generation and production fall

U.S. coal generation is forecast to fall 8% in 2026 and another 6% in 2027 as output from natural gas and renewables expands across several major regional power markets.

Federal projections place coal production at 516 million short tons in 2026 and 497 million in 2027, down from 528 million short tons produced across the country in 2025.

Federal policies support coal

President Donald Trump directed federal agencies to support domestic coal production, remove regulatory barriers, encourage its use for rising electricity demand, and promote exports under Executive Order 14261.

The U.S. Department of Energy has also used emergency authority to require several plants scheduled for retirement to remain available when officials identified electricity supply risks across multiple regions.

EPA changes power plant rules

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency finalized a partial repeal of most 2024 greenhouse gas requirements for fossil fuel power plants, but the rule had not yet taken effect.

The agency separately proposed removing the remaining greenhouse gas standards for the power sector, leaving that broader regulatory change pending and subject to further federal action before finalization.

Electricity demand keeps rising

Electricity consumption is forecast to reach record levels as data center development and manufacturing increase combined commercial and industrial demand across the United States during 2026 and 2027.

Natural gas generation is projected to rise 2% in 2026 and 1% in 2027, while coal output declines during both forecast years under the same published federal outlook.

Solar growth continues

Solar generation is projected to rise 21% in 2026 and 18% in 2027, while federal forecasts expect continued utility-scale solar additions to the national grid during both years.

Federal forecasters expect solar growth to concentrate in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas and Midcontinent Independent System Operator regions, with added electricity generation increasing further through 2027.

Fun fact: Donald Trump was the first U.S. president to enter the White House without prior public office or military leadership experience.

Kentucky coal jobs keep falling

Kentucky lost more than 300 coal mining jobs during the first six months of 2026, leaving fewer than 3,400 positions by June 30 across the state’s coal workforce.

Most losses were concentrated in eastern Kentucky, where employment fell further as a Pike County producer entered bankruptcy and mining communities faced continued workforce pressure through midyear 2026.

Little-known fact: In 2000, coal power supplied 52% of U.S. electricity, while natural gas provided 16% of the fuel mix that year.

Kentucky production trends diverge

Kentucky coal production rose by less than 1% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Eastern Kentucky production fell 5.5% year over year, while Western Kentucky production increased 5%.

Coal employment statewide fell nearly 13% from the first quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, even as overall production edged slightly higher. The figures show that employment and production moved in different directions over the year.

Court vacates original Campbell order

The United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit vacated the U.S. Department of Energy’s original May 2025 order covering Michigan’s J.H. Campbell Generating Plant.

The court concluded that the identified conditions did not justify emergency authority after Michigan regulators and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator approved Campbell’s retirement and replacement resources following reliability reviews.

Ruling leaves Campbell order in place

The September ruling did not end every Campbell requirement because a later U.S. Department of Energy order still directed the plant to remain available through November 14, 2026.

That later order began on August 17 and instructed MISO to keep Campbell available while using economic dispatch to minimize costs for electricity customers across the regional market.

Campbell costs reach $259 million

Consumers Energy reported a $259 million net financial impact from Campbell emergency orders through June 30 after subtracting $239 million in MISO revenues earned during continued plant operations.

The company filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to recover costs tied to the May 2025 order, while later Campbell expenses remained subject to separate regulatory proceedings.

Kentucky challenges FERC’s cost allocation ruling

Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman challenged the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s approval of PJM Interconnection’s method for allocating costs arising from Department of Energy emergency plant operation orders.

East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc. independently filed a petition with the United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit challenging the same approved regional cost allocation framework.

Want to stay informed every day? Check out how the Nevada solar project advanced as demand grew from AI and data centers.

Appalachian production edges lower

Federal forecasters expect Appalachian coal production to remain roughly flat in 2026 before declining about 2% in 2027, a smaller change than regional estimates show for Western output.

The Western region is projected to decline about 4% in 2026 and another 5% in 2027, showing a steeper production drop than Appalachia under the same federal outlook.

Want to read more about the latest developments? Check out how Trump’s new solar import rules could raise project costs and affect what Americans pay for solar next year.

Do you think Kentucky’s coal forecast shows Trump’s energy policies have limited impact on production and jobs, or do federal actions still matter for coal communities? Share your thoughts.

This slideshow was made with AI assistance and human editing.

Read More From This Brand:

• Michigan coal plant ruling limits Trump’s emergency power over state electricity planning
• Georgia clean-energy manufacturers adapt after Trump rolls back electric vehicle support
• Oregon wildfire costs push lawmakers toward emergency funding