Deportation costs could rise for Ohio taxpayers as the labor pool gets smaller

Trump administration mass deportation campaign

Imagine seeing $1,670 linked to your taxes for a federal policy. That is the estimate EPI assigns to an average Ohio federal tax filer who owes income tax after credits, based on projected deportation spending.

The figure comes from a calculator by the Economic Policy Institute, not an Ohio tax bill. It puts a national policy into a number that feels personal, making this debate easier for households to understand.

Ohio and Trump administration mass deportations

The National Priorities Project estimates that $268.9 billion in federal funding has been committed to immigration enforcement tied to the Trump administration’s mass-deportation agenda for fiscal years 2025 through 2029.

For Ohio, EPI’s calculation produces a projected state share of nearly $6.9 billion. Axios reported the Ohio estimate at about $1,670 for the average federal filer who owes tax after credits. That figure describes an allocation of federal spending, not a separate Ohio tax.

Trump administration mass deportation costs

EPI’s calculator starts with the National Priorities Project’s $268.9 billion estimate for mass deportations during the second Trump administration. It allocates the projected cost according to each area’s share of federal income taxes paid.

EPI says that, as of July 2026, the latest IRS geographic tables available were for 2022. The calculator therefore estimates an allocation of projected spending, rather than predicting an individual taxpayer’s actual bill.

Ohio ICE detention numbers matter

An Ohio Immigrant Alliance analysis of federal ICE records counted 7,756 people detained in Ohio between January 2025 and March 2026. Fewer than 5% had a violent offense listed as their most serious criminal conviction.

The analysis classified about 47% as having no criminal history at booking. Others had pending charges or nonviolent convictions, including traffic-related offenses, showing that ICE detention records include people with different criminal and immigration histories.

Detention and deportation are different

ICE detention and immigration removal are different parts of the enforcement system. ICE says detention can be used to ensure participation in immigration proceedings, facilitate removal, or address public-safety concerns.

The Deportation Data Project found that among detainees without criminal convictions or a preexisting final removal order, the share deported within 60 days rose from 26% to 57% during the administration’s first year.

Little-known fact: In a May 2025 survey of 146 Fourth District business contacts, 77% said changes to immigration policy had not affected their ability to hire or retain workers at that point.

Immigration status can shape enforcement

Immigration cases can involve status problems that are separate from criminal convictions. A visa overstay or an expired temporary protected status can trigger immigration consequences, depending on the person’s circumstances and case under federal law.

That distinction helps explain why enforcement data should not be read as a simple list of criminal cases. Legal status, convictions, pending charges, and removal orders are different categories that can overlap in immigration records.

Little-known fact: The American Immigration Council reports that immigrants in the Akron-Canton region were 21.6% more likely to be of working age than U.S.-born residents in 2023.

Ohio employers are still hiring

Ohio’s May 2026 OhioMeansJobs snapshot listed 126,739 online job postings, including 4,596 for registered nurses. The report warns postings are not a complete count of unique vacancies, but they show employer demand for May 2026.

Healthcare is only one part of that picture. Companies across Ohio also need workers in manufacturing, construction, transportation, agriculture, and other fields, making workforce supply an important part of the immigration debate across the state.

Immigrants fill important Ohio jobs

American Immigration Council data show immigrants made up 15.7% of Ohio’s personal care aides, 9.1% of transportation and warehousing workers, and 7.6% of manufacturing workers in 2023. These shares describe many workers across Ohio industries.

They represented 6.9% of agricultural workers and 6.2% of construction workers, matching their 6.2% share of Ohio’s overall workforce. The council’s definition includes many legal statuses, not only undocumented immigrants. The measure spans legal statuses.

ICE activity can affect workers

A 2026 National Bureau of Economic Research working paper found employment declines among likely undocumented workers in areas with sharply higher ICE activity, compared with areas seeing smaller increases, rather than showing every person affected.

The researchers also found employment among U.S. born men without college degrees declined. Their estimate was one such job loss for every six likely undocumented men who lost employment after increased ICE activity affected areas.

Immigrant households add tax dollars

American Immigration Council research says immigrants in Ohio earned $27.3 billion in income during 2023 and paid $7.3 billion in federal, state, and local taxes. Those taxes include federal, state, and local payments from households.

The council also estimated immigrant households retained $20 billion in spending power after taxes. Those figures cover immigrants broadly, including naturalized citizens, permanent residents, visa holders, refugees, asylees, and undocumented immigrants within the council’s definition.

Immigrant entrepreneurs add another layer

Immigrant entrepreneurs are another measurable part of Ohio’s economy. American Immigration Council data show more than 38,200 immigrant entrepreneurs made up 8.2% of the state’s entrepreneurs in 2023. The data come from the council’s analysis.

Those business owners generated about $1 billion in business income, according to the council. Entrepreneurship can connect immigration to hiring, storefront activity, purchases, and local economic activity beyond traditional employee counts for local economies too.

Ohio’s population picture is changing

JobsOhio reported that Ohio added 101,065 residents since 2020, with net migration contributing 146,471. The Census estimates also show growth among residents ages 25 to 54, a key working age group during the same period.

Growth is not equal everywhere. Census estimates put Cleveland’s 2025 population at 363,608, down 2.4% from its 2020 base. Statewide population gains can therefore coexist with losses in individual communities. Change differs across Ohio communities.

There’s a fascinating Ohio story hiding behind an ordinary newsstand. See how this small local business became part of the community’s story.

Ohio’s talent strategy faces challenges

JobsOhio offers a $15,000 incentive for each qualifying new out-of-state STEM or technical hire above an employer’s three-year baseline. The program is intended to encourage additional recruitment of specialized talent into Ohio.

JobsOhio estimates Ohio will need more than 540,000 additional STEM and technically skilled workers over the next decade. In remarks reported on August 14, 2026, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine said, “We need some immigrants to come in here,” while calling for discussion of legal immigration.

Curious how Ohio’s immigration debate is affecting state leaders? Discover more on the latest clash over Haitian TPS.

What do you think Ohio’s workforce could look like as immigration enforcement expands? Share your thoughts in the comments.

This slideshow was made with AI assistance and human editing.

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