Texas election battle heats up as Hinojosa gains momentum against Abbott

Texas governor race getting close

The race for Texas governor is looking more competitive than usual. Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa trailed Republican Governor Greg Abbott by 3 points in a July 2026 Texas Public Opinion Research poll, while a later Fox News poll showed Abbott ahead by just 1 point.

That is notable because Texas has not elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards won in 1990. The TPOR poll showed Abbott at 45%, Hinojosa at 42%, and 10% of voters undecided, leaving room for the race to keep shifting before Election Day.

Hinojosa closing the gap fast

Recent polls show Gina Hinojosa making the Texas governor’s race more competitive, though results vary. TPOR put Abbott ahead 45% to 42% in July, while Fox News later showed Abbott ahead by just 1 point.

Some polls still show Abbott with a wider lead, and polling averages place him ahead overall. Hinojosa has gained attention from tighter surveys, but the race is competitive rather than a confirmed steady shift.

What do the poll numbers really show?

The Texas Public Opinion Research poll surveyed 1,048 likely voters between July 15 and 17 and found Abbott at 45% compared with Hinojosa at 42%. The margin of error was ±3.4 percentage points, which means Abbott’s 3-point lead was inside the poll’s margin of error.

The poll also showed Hinojosa leading among independents by 5 points and among moderates by 18 points. Abbott led among college-educated voters by 9 points and white voters by 29 points.

Hinojosa’s strength with key groups

The polling data show clear patterns in who supports each candidate. Hinojosa has strong backing from Black voters, leading by 49 points, and she also does well with Latino voters, leading by 38 points.

Abbott continues to perform well with white voters, leading by 29 points. The race could turn on which candidate performs better with swing groups, especially independents and moderates.

Hinojosa’s promise to Texans

Gina Hinojosa has centered her campaign on public schools, affordability, and her “Greg Abbott Corruption Tax” message, while reaching out to Democrats, Republicans, and independents who want a change in state leadership.

She argues that Abbott is too focused on wealthy donors and not enough on working Texans. Hinojosa says her agenda would rebuild the American Dream in Texas through an economy that works for families, strong neighborhood schools, and safer communities.

Abbott’s challenges this year

Greg Abbott is running for a record fourth term as Texas governor, but recent polls show a more competitive race than he has usually faced. A Fox News poll found his personal rating barely positive, at 50% favorable and 49% unfavorable.

The same poll also showed some ticket-splitting. Abbott drew support from 12% of Talarico supporters in the governor race, while Hinojosa drew support from 9% of Paxton supporters.

Senate race is just as tight

The Texas Senate race is just as competitive as the governor’s race, with Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 51% to 48%. This is surprising because Texas hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1988.

Talarico’s advantage grows to 6 points among voters who are extremely motivated and interested in the election. The numbers show that Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting this year, which could make a real difference.

Voter concerns about character

One of the big issues in the Senate race is character. By a 12-point margin, more voters are concerned that Ken Paxton lacks the character to serve as senator than worry that James Talarico is too extreme. About 59% of voters are concerned about Paxton’s character.

Even more striking, 36% of Republicans share that concern about their own party’s candidate. That’s twice as many as the 17% of Democrats who think Talarico is too extreme.

Fun fact: Talarico holds the best statewide net favorability rating of any figure tested in the poll at +12, while Paxton holds the worst at -13.

What issues matter most to voters?

When asked about the most important issue for their vote, inflation tops the list. Nearly 4 in 10 Texas voters say the rising cost of living will determine how they cast their ballot. Immigration comes in second at 2 in 10 voters, followed by healthcare, political divisions, and unemployment.

More than twice as many Texas voters say they’re falling behind financially rather than getting ahead. About 35% say they’re struggling, while only 16% feel they’re making progress. Half of voters say their financial situation is staying about the same.

Hispanic voters could decide everything

Hispanic voters make up a crucial part of the Texas electorate, and both parties are fighting for their support. In the governor’s race, Fox News found Hinojosa leading Hispanic voters by 16 points, while TPOR found her leading Latino voters by 38 points.

In TPOR’s Senate polling, Talarico led Latino voters by 46 points, with 66% supporting him and 20% supporting Paxton. Fox News also found inflation was the top Senate issue for Hispanic voters, with roughly 4 in 10 naming it as their most important issue.

Democratic enthusiasm is rising in Texas

One of the most interesting findings from recent polling is the enthusiasm gap. More Democrats than Republicans say they are extremely motivated to vote in the midterms, by a margin of 7 points. Democrats also hold a 6-point edge in extreme interest in the election.

Recent polling shows Talarico and Hinojosa doing better with highly engaged voters. If Democratic enthusiasm translates into turnout, it could narrow Texas’s Republican advantage and make statewide races more competitive this November than many expected.

Fun fact: The last time Texas elected a Democratic presidential candidate was in 1976 when Jimmy Carter won the state.

Attorney general race is a dead heat

Democrats are also making progress in the race for Texas Attorney General. The July poll shows Republican Mayes Middleton leading Democrat Nathan Johnson by just 1 point, with 39% to 38% and 18% still undecided.

Johnson is telling voters that Texans need a change in priorities. He argues that state leaders are not doing enough on costs, corruption, and personal freedoms, and says the attorney general’s office should focus more on Texans’ everyday concerns.

Want to see how emergency response choices are making headlines in Texas? Check out how Emergency response choices draw attention in the Texas shooting case.

Could Texas flip this November?

Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994. Still, recent polls show close races for governor, U.S. Senate, and attorney general, with Hinojosa drawing attention among Latinos, independents, and moderates in TPOR’s July survey data.

Texas voters head to the polls on November 3, 2026, after early voting begins on October 19. Recent polling shows undecided voters and Democratic enthusiasm drawing national attention, even as Republicans remain strong statewide.

Curious why many Texans are paying too much for their electricity without even knowing it? Check out why many Texas electricity customers are unknowingly overpaying for power.

Do you think this race could get even closer before November? Share your thoughts in the comments and give this post a thumbs up if you’re following Texas politics.

This slideshow was made with AI assistance and human editing.

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