Florida tops the nation in risky housing for the first time ever, beating out California

Florida overtakes California for first time

Florida has more at-risk housing markets than any other state in the country.

Property data firm ATTOM released its Q4 2025 Housing Risk Report on March 11, and Florida counties claimed 16 of the 50 riskiest spots nationwide.

That’s the first time Florida knocked California off the top of the list. California had 11 counties in the top 50, followed by New Jersey with four.

ATTOM looked at 594 counties across the U.S., excluding Connecticut because of data issues.

Four factors determine housing risk scores

ATTOM ranked counties on four equally weighted factors: foreclosure rates, seriously underwater mortgages, home affordability compared to local wages, and local unemployment rates.

The firm pulled from its own property reports and November 2025 unemployment figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Counties that scored lowest across all four categories landed at the top of the risk list, meaning they face the most pressure from multiple directions at once.

Charlotte County, Fla., tops the list

Charlotte County, Fla., home to Punta Gorda, ranked as the single riskiest housing market in the nation. Charles County, Md., came in second, and Butte County, Calif., followed in third.

Saint Lucie County, Fla., and Atlantic County, N.J., rounded out the top five.

What set these counties apart from the pack were especially high foreclosure and unemployment rates, two forces that put real downward pressure on home values.

Florida dominates the foreclosure rankings too

Of the 50 counties with the worst foreclosure rates nationally, 14 were in Florida. Eight were in South Carolina and five were in New Jersey.

Across the country, about 1 in every 1,274 homes had a foreclosure filing in Q4 2025. Dorchester County, S.C., posted the worst rate at roughly 1 in every 294 homes.

Charlotte County, Fla., and Osceola County, Fla., weren’t far behind at about 1 in every 348 and 360 homes.

Foreclosures climb but stay below pre-pandemic levels

Foreclosure filings hit about 367,000 U.S. properties in 2025, up roughly 14% from 2024. Activity has risen year over year for 11 straight months through January 2026.

But those numbers are still about 25% below 2019 levels and 87% below the 2010 peak. ATTOM CEO Rob Barber has described the trend as a “continued normalization of the housing market,” not a crisis.

Foreclosure starts rose about 14% in 2025, and bank repossessions jumped roughly 27%, though both remain far below historical highs.

Unemployment adds to Florida’s housing pressure

High unemployment is stacking on top of Florida’s foreclosure problems.

According to ATTOM’s look at Bureau of Labor Statistics county-level data, 13 of the 50 counties with the highest unemployment rates were in Florida. California had 15 on that list, and New Jersey had three.

The national unemployment rate sat at about 4.5% in November 2025. Imperial County, Calif., had the highest county-level rate at roughly 20%. Sumter County, Fla., led among Florida counties at about 9%.

Home prices soften but stay near records

The national median home sale price came in at about $365,000 in Q4 2025.

That was nearly $10,000 less than the prior quarter but still among the highest prices ever recorded.

In more than 55% of the counties ATTOM studied, a typical resident would need at least a third of their wages just to cover housing costs.

In about 15% of counties, housing costs would eat up more than half of a typical resident’s paycheck.

Florida posts steepest price drop of any state

Separate data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) shows Florida home prices fell about 2.7% year over year in Q4 2025, the steepest annual decline of any state.

Nine states and Washington, D.C., posted annual price declines during the quarter. Nationally, home prices rose about 1.8% year over year, the slowest pace since 2012.

The FHFA data covers homes financed with conventional loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Louisiana leads in underwater mortgages

About 3% of homes nationwide were considered seriously underwater, meaning loan balances topped the home’s estimated market value by at least 25%.

All five counties with the highest underwater rates were in Louisiana. Calcasieu Parish led with about 17% of homes seriously underwater.

Ouachita Parish and Rapides Parish each had close to 14%. These numbers show that even outside Florida, pockets of real financial stress dot the map.

New York and California are the least affordable

Kings County, N.Y., was the least affordable county in the entire analysis.

A typical resident there would need more than 100% of their annual wages just to cover housing costs.

Four California counties followed: Marin, Santa Cruz, Orange, and Monterey, all requiring roughly 90% or more of local wages.

Even among the 50 safest markets, affordability was a challenge, with housing costs eating up more than a third of wages in many of them.

Midwest markets rank as the safest

Nine of the 50 least risky counties were in Wisconsin. Five were in New York and four each were in Pennsylvania and Tennessee.

The five safest markets were Olmsted County, Minn.; Tippecanoe County, Ind.; Chittenden County, Vt.; Rock County, Wis.; and Medina County, Ohio.

These counties posted moderate affordability scores but had some of the lowest unemployment and foreclosure rates in the country, keeping them well insulated from broader housing stress.

What buyers and homeowners should know

Homeowners in high-risk counties could see property values slip if foreclosure and unemployment trends continue. Buyers in those same markets may find more room to negotiate as conditions soften.

The data doesn’t predict a crash, but it flags counties where multiple stress factors are piling up at once.

Barber noted that markets where prices stay high while foreclosures rise and jobs weaken face the greatest risk. Homeowners can review county-level data through ATTOM’s public reports.

This article was created with AI assistance and human editing.

Read more from this brand:

• Foreclosures Spike 21% as More Americans Can’t Pay Their Mortgages
• USA Housing Crash Worse Than 2008 Could Start This Year, Expert Warns
• Home Sellers Are Quitting at Record Rates as Buyers Refuse to Pay