Ground beef just hit its highest price ever, so Trump is importing more from Argentina

Argentina gets a bigger beef quota

President Trump signed a proclamation on Feb. 6, 2026, to temporarily boost tariff-free beef imports from Argentina.

The order lets an extra 80,000 metric tons of lean beef trimmings enter the U.S. without tariffs this year. The additional volume rolls out in four quarterly batches of 20,000 metric tons each, starting Feb. 13.

The White House said the move targets supply problems and record-high beef prices. But ranchers, lawmakers, and economists aren’t so sure it will help.

Ground beef prices hit all-time highs

Americans are paying more for beef than ever. Ground beef averaged about $6.69 per pound in December 2025, the highest price since the Bureau of Labor Statistics started tracking it in the 1980s.

Beef and veal prices jumped about 16% in a single year.

The U.S. eats more beef by volume than any other country and ranks second in per capita consumption. Even with those sky-high prices, demand hasn’t slowed down.

The country imported a record 4.64 billion pounds of beef in 2024, up about 24% from the year before.

The cattle herd keeps shrinking

The U.S. cattle herd has hit a 75-year low, and that’s a big part of the problem. As of Jan. 1, 2026, the country had about 86.2 million head of cattle, the fewest since 1951.

The beef cow herd dropped to roughly 27.6 million, the lowest since 1961. Last year’s calf crop was the smallest since 1941.

The herd has been declining for years, and high land costs, aging ranchers, and competition for land have made rebuilding slow.

A border parasite cut off Mexican cattle

There’s another wrinkle. The U.S. shut its southern border to live cattle from Mexico in May 2025 after the New World screwworm started spreading northward.

Before the closure, about 1.2 million feeder cattle crossed from Mexico each year. By September 2025, officials detected the parasitic fly just 70 miles from the U.S. border in Nuevo Leon, Mexico.

The U.S. wiped out the pest in the 1960s through a sterile fly program.

USDA now drops about 100 million sterile insects per week in Mexico and has put $100 million into new detection technology.

A trade deal set the stage

The proclamation came one day after the U.S. and Argentina signed the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade and Investment on Feb. 5, 2026. The deal goes both ways.

Argentina also opened its market to 80,000 metric tons of U.S. beef without duties.

Argentina will allow access for U.S. poultry within a year and simplify registration for American beef and pork products.

Argentina was the first of four Latin American countries to finalize a framework agreement that the Trump administration announced in November 2025.

The extra beef is a drop in the bucket

Here’s some context on how much beef this actually adds. Argentina’s old tariff-rate quota sat at 20,000 metric tons.

The new total comes to about 100,000 metric tons for 2026. That sounds like a lot, but Argentina made up only about 2% of all U.S. beef imports in 2025.

Even at 80,000 metric tons, the additional Argentine beef represents roughly 4% of total imports.

The U.S. eats about 12 million metric tons of beef a year, so the added volume comes to less than 1% of total consumption.

Ranchers say imports won’t fix prices

Cattle producers pushed back hard. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) said it cannot support the president while he undercuts family farmers and ranchers with Argentine imports.

The Iowa Cattlemen’s Association said members disagree that foreign beef is the answer to lower prices.

R-CALF USA said past import increases haven’t lowered consumer beef prices and have actually lined up with herd shrinkage.

Several ranchers pointed out they’re price takers, not price makers, and have no control over what shoppers pay at the store.

GOP lawmakers from cattle states push back

The criticism came from the president’s own party.

Sen. Deb Fischer of Nebraska said the focus should be on cutting red tape, lowering production costs, and growing the domestic herd instead of importing beef.

Rep. Adrian Smith of Nebraska, who chairs the Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee, said policies should create long-term certainty for the supply chain.

These lawmakers represent major cattle-producing states and have been loyal supporters of the president. Trump first floated the idea in October 2025 and faced immediate backlash from rural lawmakers and farm groups.

Economists doubt prices will drop much

Agricultural economist David Ortega of Michigan State University said the added volume is small compared to total U.S. consumption and probably won’t move retail prices much.

Oklahoma State livestock specialist Derrell Peel said consumers keep paying high prices and demand data backs that up.

Other economists warned that undercutting cattle prices with cheaper imports discourages ranchers from rebuilding herds, which is exactly what the market needs long-term.

USDA projects wholesale beef prices to rise another 7% in 2026. Meaningful herd rebuilding likely won’t happen before 2027 or 2028.

Meatpackers may pocket the savings instead

Ranchers and trade groups argue the real driver of high retail prices is concentration among the four largest meatpacking companies.

R-CALF USA said the country must enforce antitrust and fair-competition laws to restore lasting affordability.

Critics say large packers could absorb cheaper imports as higher margins rather than pass savings to shoppers.

In December 2025, Trump signed an executive order targeting price-fixing and anti-competitive behavior in the grocery supply chain.

R-CALF USA and others have called for country-of-origin labeling so consumers can choose between imported and American beef.

Food safety worries follow the deal

NCBA warned that Argentina has a history of foreign animal disease issues.

The group said expanding imports without stronger inspection rules and updated audits could put American consumers and the U.S. cattle herd at risk.

The South Dakota Cattlemen’s Association said the U.S. should only import beef from countries with safety standards fully comparable to its own.

The proclamation covers only lean beef trimmings, which go mainly into ground beef. Imported lean trimmings get blended with fattier domestic trimmings to make products like hamburgers.

The first shipments are already rolling in

The first quarterly batch of 20,000 metric tons opened Feb. 13 and closes March 31, 2026. The Secretary of Agriculture will keep monitoring domestic lean beef supplies.

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told cattle producers at CattleCon 2026 that “nobody in the administration wants to import beef,” but said there must be a balance with lowering grocery prices.

Kennedy urged ranchers to stop slaughtering breeding cows and grow their herds.

Beef replacement heifers ticked up 1% in the latest USDA report, a small but possibly early sign of stabilization.

This article was created with AI assistance and human editing.

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