NASA’s moon lander faces two years of delays and one huge unsolved problem

NASA watchdog flags Starship setbacks

NASA’s inspector general dropped a report on March 10 that paints a tough picture for the agency’s moon plans.

SpaceX’s Starship, picked as the astronaut moon lander back in April 2021, has stacked up at least two years of development delays.

The original goal was a crewed landing in 2024, though officials never really believed that date. Now the target is early 2028, and even that is far from certain.

Artemis aims to return Americans to the moon

Artemis is NASA’s multibillion-dollar push to put Americans back on the moon for the first time since Apollo 17 in 1972. NASA’s Space Launch System rocket and Orion capsule carry astronauts to lunar orbit.

From there, SpaceX’s Starship or Blue Origin’s Blue Moon lander would take them down to the surface. The program has cost roughly $93 billion through fiscal year 2025.

Each SLS/Orion launch alone runs about $2 billion to $4 billion.

NASA reshuffled the mission lineup in February

On Feb. 27, NASA shook up the Artemis schedule. Artemis III, which was supposed to be the first landing, became an orbital docking test in low-Earth orbit, now set for mid-2027.

The first crewed moon landing shifted to Artemis IV, targeting early 2028. A second landing, Artemis V, is penciled in for late 2028.

NASA also said whichever lander is ready first, whether that’s SpaceX or Blue Origin, gets the job.

Refueling Starship in orbit remains unproven

Here’s the big problem. To reach the moon, Starship needs to refuel in Earth orbit, and that takes an estimated 10 to 20 tanker flights.

A propellant storage depot has to launch first and get filled by a steady stream of tankers flying out of Florida and Texas. Nobody has ever tried orbital refueling of cryogenic propellants at this scale.

NASA flagged this as a top risk, warning SpaceX’s technology may not be ready in time for 2028.

Fuel boils away faster than SpaceX can solve

Starship runs on roughly 1,200 metric tons of liquid methane and liquid oxygen, both of which must stay below negative 238 degrees Fahrenheit. In space, those fuels constantly warm up and evaporate.

SpaceX hasn’t publicly explained how it plans to prevent that loss. The tanker launches would need to happen back to back to limit how much fuel boils off.

SpaceX moved a small amount of propellant between two tanks on one Starship in March 2024, but a ship-to-ship transfer hasn’t happened yet.

Test flights show progress but leave gaps

SpaceX has flown 11 integrated Starship test flights since April 2023 and hit some big milestones along the way, including controlled landings and catching the Super Heavy booster with the launch tower’s mechanical arms.

But the inspector general’s report noted that SpaceX still needs to fly an uncrewed demo mission to the lunar surface and back before any astronauts can ride.

The report also found NASA isn’t fully following its own “test like you fly” rules for those demos.

Crew safety concerns stand out in the report

The inspector general found gaps in how NASA is reducing risk for astronauts. If something goes wrong on the lunar surface, NASA has no way to rescue the crew right now.

The expected chance of losing a crew member is about 1 in 40 for surface operations and 1 in 30 for the full mission.

For context, Apollo astronauts faced roughly 1 in 10 odds, while space shuttle crews flew with an actual risk of about 1 in 70.

A broken elevator could strand astronauts

Starship stands 171 feet tall, about the height of a 14-story building. The elevator that astronauts use sits roughly 115 feet off the ground, just below the crew cabin.

If that elevator breaks while astronauts are on the moon, they have no other way back inside. NASA requires at least one backup system for events that could kill the crew.

The program is tracking the elevator as a top risk and working with SpaceX on alternatives.

The south pole makes landing even harder

Artemis plans to land near the moon’s south pole, a spot no human has ever visited. The terrain includes slopes as steep as 20 degrees, which creates real challenges for navigation and landing.

Given Starship’s extreme height, the risk of tipping on uneven ground goes up. Apollo missions landed near the equator on flat terrain.

NASA chose the south pole because it may hold water ice that could support future missions.

China targets a 2030 moon landing

China has said it wants to land two astronauts on the moon by 2030. In October 2025, China’s crewed space agency said the program was on track.

The key hardware includes the Long March 10 rocket, the Mengzhou crew capsule, and the Lanyue lander. An uncrewed test mission is planned for 2028 or 2029.

If NASA’s timeline slips again, China could put astronauts on the moon around the same time as the United States.

Artemis moves far slower than Apollo did

Between 1968 and 1972, Apollo launched roughly one mission every four and a half months. Artemis averages more than two years between missions.

Artemis I flew uncrewed in November 2022. Artemis II, a crewed flyby, targets April 2026.

If Artemis IV lands on the moon in early 2028, it will have taken over five years from the first Artemis flight to the first landing. That’s a very different pace than the program that first put humans on the moon.

The 2028 deadline hinges on SpaceX

NASA says it wants to fly roughly one lunar mission per year after 2028. Artemis V, the second planned landing, would also start building a moon base.

Blue Origin’s lander is expected to carry crew on later missions.

The inspector general made several recommendations to tighten NASA’s oversight and testing standards.

Whether the 2028 target holds comes down to SpaceX clearing the remaining technical hurdles, especially orbital refueling.

This article was created with AI assistance and human editing.

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