One model shows a super El Niño may be coming in 2026

A single model raises big El Niño odds

One major climate model is turning heads. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts recently released data showing a 98% chance of at least a moderate El Niño developing by August 2026.

The same model puts the odds of a strong event at around 80%, with roughly a 1-in-5 chance of a “super” El Niño. But these numbers come from one model system and do not reflect scientific consensus.

What a super El Niño actually means

El Niño is a natural climate pattern where stretches of the equatorial Pacific Ocean warm up, shifting weather across the planet.

A “super” El Niño is an informal term used when sea surface temperatures in the key Pacific monitoring region rise more than 2 degrees Celsius above average.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration does not officially use the “super” label, though scientists and media use it widely.

At that level of warming, the effects on global weather grow stronger, last longer, and spread further.

Only three have happened since the 1950s

Since reliable temperature tracking began in the 1950s, only three super El Niños have been recorded: 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16. These events are rare, happening roughly once every 10 to 15 years.

The 1997-98 event brought devastating floods and mudslides to California, with some areas getting more than 150% of their average rainfall.

The 2015-16 event helped make 2016 the hottest year on record at the time and triggered droughts across parts of Africa, Central America, and Southeast Asia.

NOAA offers a far more cautious read

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in its March 9 update, confirmed La Niña is still present but weakening.

NOAA expects a shift to neutral conditions between February and April 2026, giving that transition about a 60% chance. The agency says neutral conditions are likely to hold through the summer.

Only about 60% of the models in NOAA’s multi-model ensemble cross the El Niño threshold by early fall, while nearly 40% stay neutral.

Spring makes these forecasts harder to trust

Spring is the least reliable season for predicting what El Niño will do later in the year.

Scientists call this the spring predictability barrier, a well-known problem where the Pacific climate system is in transition, making signals weak and hard to read.

NOAA climate scientist Michelle L’Heureux noted there is plenty of historical precedent for spring models predicting big El Niño events that never happen.

In 2014, models predicted a strong El Niño that failed to form after wind patterns shifted.

Other forecasters lean toward El Nino too

Not everyone is as cautious as NOAA. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society and Columbia University put El Niño’s probability at 58% to 61% by mid-to-late summer, well below ECMWF’s figures but still leaning in that direction.

Climate scientist Daniel Swain wrote that signs increasingly point to a significant El Niño event that could become a major climate driver in 2026-27.

Climate Impact Company’s forecast also projects El Niño development during the second quarter of 2026, potentially strengthening by the third quarter.

NOAA changed how it measures El Niño strength

In February 2026, NOAA adopted a new measurement tool called the Relative Oceanic Nino Index, or RONI. RONI compares Pacific temperatures to the broader tropical ocean rather than relying on a fixed 30-year average.

Under this new index, El Niño events may appear weaker and La Niña events stronger compared to the old system.

That means any future “super” designation could be harder to reach, even if conditions are warming significantly.

Southern US could see more rain and flooding

If a strong or super El Niño develops, the southern branch of the jet stream typically strengthens, steering more storms into the southern United States.

The Gulf Coast and Southeast could see more rainfall and flooding during late 2026 and into winter 2027. Northern states and Canada would likely see warmer and drier conditions than usual.

California could face higher chances of heavy winter downpours, similar to what happened during past strong El Niño years.

Atlantic hurricane season could quiet down

El Niño increases vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which makes it harder for hurricanes to form and grow.

Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami, said confidence is growing that this could be the quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 2015.

He cautioned, though, that it only takes one storm to cause major damage. In the Pacific, the effect runs the other way.

El Niño tends to increase hurricane activity there.

Heat stored under the ocean may be released

The shift from La Niña to El Niño matters partly because La Niña traps heat deeper in the ocean. When conditions flip to El Niño, that stored heat rises to the surface.

Former NOAA meteorologist Tom Di Liberto compared the transition to popping the lid off a container of built-up heat.

Three significant Kelvin wave events have already pushed warm water from the western Pacific toward the east, which forecasters consider a key early step in El Niño formation.

Could 2027 break global temperature records

Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather said a developing El Niño would push up estimates for 2026 global temperatures and could make 2027 the warmest year on record.

Air temperatures typically lag behind El Niño’s development by several months, so the biggest effects often show up the following year.

Defense Department meteorologist Eric Webb noted that rising greenhouse gas levels mean the climate system cannot fully release extra heat from one El Niño before the next one arrives, building on an already warmer baseline.

Watch for updates starting in late April

Any effects from a potential El Niño are still months away.

Forecasters say confidence in these predictions usually improves by late April or May, once the spring barrier passes. NOAA updates its official outlook monthly, with the next update expected in early April.

People in the southern United States, California, and along the Gulf Coast may want to pay close attention as the forecast picture sharpens over the coming summer months.

This article was created with AI assistance and human editing.

Read more from this brand:

• Americas Trees Are Making a Quiet Comeback in 60 Percent of Counties
• Forecasters warn of one of the year’s largest severe weather threats as storm system builds
• Officials urge caution in Guerneville as heavy storm moves through the Bay Area