U.S. asylum courts have become rejection machines in just 18 months

Asylum grant rates hit historic lows

Immigration judges now turn down about 8 out of every 10 asylum seekers whose cases go to a full decision.

By August 2025, only about 19% of people who asked for asylum got it, according to data from Syracuse University’s Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC).

That’s a steep drop from just a year earlier, when the grant rate sat around 38%. As recently as February 2024, more than half of asylum seekers won their cases.

The drop started under Biden

The decline didn’t begin when President Donald Trump took office in January 2025. TRAC found the slide started in spring 2024, while President Joe Biden was still in charge.

By December 2024, immigration judges were already denying cases at rates similar to Trump’s first term. The data shows a steady downward line with no obvious break between the two administrations.

Trump’s team then pushed the trend even further once in office.

Courts started moving much faster

The Trump administration sped up how fast courts handle asylum cases.

In April and May 2025, immigration courts wrapped up more than 12,000 asylum cases each month, roughly double the pace under Biden. That number dipped to about 9,269 by August, but the overall volume stayed high.

Courts made about 267,284 total asylum decisions in fiscal year 2025, according to the Executive Office for Immigration Review.

The full numbers tell a bigger story

The “8 in 10” figure only counts cases decided on their merits, which is a standard way to measure outcomes. But when you look at all 267,284 decisions, the picture gets more complicated.

About 31% ended in denials and 12% in grants. The majority, roughly 54%, landed in an “other” category that includes cases that were dismissed, terminated, or never fully decided.

So the denial rate depends on how you count.

Nearly 100 judges left the bench

About 100 immigration judges were fired or left their jobs in 2025, according to NPR. The Trump administration did not hire a single new permanent judge during the fiscal year.

Some of those who lost their jobs had high asylum grant rates. The departures shrank the bench from about 735 judges at the end of fiscal year 2024 to around 600.

Fewer judges handling faster caseloads reshaped how the courts operate.

Military lawyers step in as judges

The Pentagon approved up to 600 military lawyers to serve as temporary immigration judges. In October 2025, 25 military officers officially started alongside 11 new permanent judges.

About 100 Army Reserve lawyers were expected in the first group, with training starting in late 2025.

Some military law experts raised concerns that the appointees had little or no experience in immigration law, a highly specialized field with life-or-death stakes.

New rules narrow asylum grounds

Attorney General Pam Bondi issued a ruling on Sept. 2, 2025, called Matter of S-S-F-M-, that largely blocks domestic violence as a reason for asylum.

The decision brought back restrictions from Trump’s first term and overturned a 2021 ruling by former Attorney General Merrick Garland.

A related ruling, Matter of R-E-R-M-, reinstated limits on family-based asylum claims. Together, the two decisions cut off two of the most common paths people used to seek protection.

Border crossings dropped sharply

Southwest border apprehensions fell about 95% from the Biden-era average.

In December 2025, Border Patrol averaged roughly 209 apprehensions per day along the Southwest border. Under Biden, that daily average was about 5,110.

Border Patrol also reported eight straight months of zero releases into the country as of December 2025.

The dramatic decline means far fewer new asylum seekers are entering the system, even as the courts race through older cases.

Deportation figures draw debate

TRAC estimated about 234,211 removals happened under Trump in fiscal year 2025. Adding early fiscal year 2026 data, the total reached roughly 290,603.

The administration has claimed higher numbers, but independent analysts have pushed back.

TRAC pointed out the total was only about 7% more than the approximately 271,000 removals in Biden’s last full fiscal year, despite the administration putting significantly more resources toward enforcement.

Millions of cases still wait

More than 2.4 million asylum applications sat pending in immigration courts at the end of fiscal year 2025. The overall court backlog reached about 3.7 million cases.

Even at the faster pace, clearing that pile could take many years.

One number stands out: about 306,557 of the roughly 485,456 removal orders issued in fiscal year 2025 came in absentia, meaning the person never showed up for their hearing.

Lawyers make a huge difference

Asylum protects people who can show persecution or a real fear of it based on race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or belonging to a particular social group.

But whether someone wins often comes down to who represents them and which judge hears their case. About 77% of asylum seekers without a lawyer get denied.

Grant rates among individual judges range from under 5% to over 90%, depending on the court.

Both sides agree the system was overwhelmed

Supporters of the administration’s approach say people were misusing the asylum system and that tougher standards better match what the law intended.

Critics, including advocacy groups and some legal scholars, say the changes weaken due process and put vulnerable people at risk of returning to dangerous situations.

Both sides agree on one thing: the system was buckling, with nearly a million new asylum applications filed in fiscal year 2024 alone. How courts handle the remaining backlog will shape immigration policy going forward.

This article was created with AI assistance and human editing.

Read more from this brand:

• Trump Ends Family Reunification Programs for 7 Countries, Stranding 120,000 Immigrants
• Senate Passes $174B Spending Package — But ICE Shooting Throws DHS Funding Into Doubt
• Africa Fires Back at Trump With Travel Bans on U.S. Citizens